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Information Markets to Predict Gameplay

Pasar informasi tampaknya dalam upaya untuk mengumpulkan informasi dan orang-orang memiliki alat terbaik dan memprediksi kejadian di masa depan. Bangunan pada ide-ide dari Friedrich Hayek, profesi dan organisasi yang berbeda telah mulai membantu dengan pasar informasi untuk membuat keputusan yang lebih baik. Sebagai contoh, Iowa Elektronik Pasar, Perdagangan dan Pemilu Jalan memiliki hasil pemilu memprediksi lebih baik daripada jajak pendapat. Google juga menggunakan pasar informasi perkiraan peluncuran produk, pembukaan kantor baru, dan banyak hal lain yang penting strategis untuk Google.

Bagaimana pasar informasi untuk bekerja? Pasar Informasi agregat keputusan individu dan menerjemahkan keputusan ini dalam probabilitas konsensus bahwa peristiwa tertentu akan terjadi di masa depan. Misalnya, di Google, saham perusahaan untuk 146 acara di 43 bidang topik yang berbeda (tidak ada pembayaran diperlukan untuk bermain). Sama seperti pasar saham, membeli karyawan Google dan menjual saham mencapai harga pasar - keputusan konsensus. Google terlihat untuk mengambil harga pasar ini ketika memutuskan sebuah keputusan penting.

Alat yang sama yang telah membantu mengubah Google menjadi salah satu perusahaan yang paling kuat di dunia pada akhirnya akan digunakan oleh tim bisbol profesional untuk membuat keputusan penting Baseball. Tim Baseball akan menggunakan pasar ini untuk memutuskan kapan mereka mempromosikan prospek mereka dari AAA ke jurusan, apakah mereka berdagang bintang penuaan mereka untuk prospek muda.

Sama seperti statistik bisbol mengubah operasi tim bisbol pada 1990-an dan 2000-an, pasar informasi adalah organisasi bisbol cara kerja di masa depan untuk mengubah.

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